The Understanding Of Health And Social Care Social Work Essay

The Understanding Of Health And Social Care Social Work Essay It is difficult that to describe and understand the value of care because value of care has very narrow in terms of the all the aspects of health and social care. Care value defines the rules, principles, regulations, and guidelines that every carer has to follow during their services to their clients. The values play dominant role in terms of influencing the carer because it dealt with decision making activity and practical actions with them. It need to know the values, ethics and rights. It also need to know the age, gender, ability, ethnicity, and identitys of carer. It is also important that to know the influence of the practice to carer. It is also important that to know the relationship between values and government policy that can affect society. It also need to looking at the how the values affecting individuals live in terms of their own lives. The value of care is also important for an organization. There are certain principles which can be consider to enhance the quality o f care. These principles includes, the anti-discrimination practice has to be promotes, the information has to be friendliness in nature and also same time maintenance is also important. The freedom of people in terms of their right which also should be independence, of their choice, safety, and with all these need to be promoting and supporting at the same time. The individuals personal beliefs and their identities should be acknowledge. The protection of people is also important in event of abuse. The communication skills of individual and the relationships between service users and carer is also important, it should be providing in effective way. The individualised care is as much important as to provide them care in terms of values. If there should any violation occurs in terms of care value, there should be a possibility of the dismissals and also sued of laws. It sometimes organization should be suffered a lot and it should be close. The above are also possible when there is a violation in code of conduct. The care values are dominant as it considers clients expectation from their health and social care services. The below are certain points which need to considers for enhancement of quality of care. Clinical governance Organization need to be more responsive as they serves with formal structures to the clients. Organization has to be dealt with the other aspects such as follows national standards framework. Organization has to deliver high quality services for excellency of the organization. The commitment is requires from the all levels in organization to provide coherent services to the clients. It is the important aspects to enhancing the quality of care. Change Management Change management is important aspects as the question of enhancing the quality of care. The nurses or care are different at level of their works, so change management of that can be important aspects to enhancing quality of care. Change management should be do with the success and failures of individuals in organization. It is the important aspects to enhancing the quality of care. Monitoring The three approaches of evaluation of quality of care is important and it need to be monitor. These three approaches are structural assessment, care processes and care outcomes. The auditing is important part which helps to organizations to identifying the problems and developing the solution. It is a worthwhile processes to enhance the quality of care. Care Standards There are certain standards which need to be fulfil and maintain at the time of serving the work. The interventions and treatments should be make with the proper guidance. These standards has to be make with research and innovation. Organization has to encourage the innovative practice within framework of standards. The quality of care should be enhance by maintaining and promoting the care standards. Professional Qualities Professional individuals has to improve their skills. At the same time, they have to be work consistently and reasonably with multi-tasking abilities. It necessary for an organization to take periodically audit on the skills and qualification of the individuals. It gives the detailed information that where the individuals lack of skills and how to be improve it, in other words what type of training require to the individual. It is the important aspects to enhancing the quality of care. Issues related to quality The issues such as poor discharge planning, lack of involvement in care, lack of skills, poor understanding of the needs of clients, unprofessional behaviour, poor standards of care and the problem of inequality distribution to care need to be address. These issues are important and the expertise power has to find the solution to overcome from such issues. It is the important aspects to enhancing the quality of care. Policies There should be a policies for the quality issues to dealt within the organization. Policies need to be frame, maintain and implement periodically within the organization. It is the important aspects to enhancing the quality of care. Conclusion: Individual does not need to go beyond their duties and responsibilities to enhance the quality of care. Clinical governance provides us with a framework to begin transforming care quality. Change management is important for enhancing the quality of care. Individual has to be take care of the standards of care at the time of performing their duties. Individual has to be develop and improve their skills to enhance the quality of care. Evaluate the needs of three groups of service users and the care that can be provided for them in health and social care in Britain, including the specific roles of care assistants and social workers in each group. Introduction Health and social care is an immense service sphere experiencing a rapid change. With every change of government the importance to health and social care services has been amended. Priorities to health and social services are rising. With rapid change there comes an uncertainty, the only reason behind this is many times people in their lives needs a care taker in one form or the other at home, or at hospitals at the time of surgery. Health and Social care is a profession where someone takes care of a person who has a special need. A person in special need would be a child, an adolescents, it may be a person who is experiencing physical disabilities, a mentally challenged person. This is a profession devoted to deliver a quality care and support to an individual or a group of people where the needs have been examined and identified as well. This can be formally explained as a profession purvey care, support, shelter, protagonist for a dependent person. This is applied and made in act ion after a great research and analysing the need and the special care that the dependent person is in need of. This Health and social care service is available all over the world however they are known by some different phenomena as the region differs. For example in Europe Health and social care is known as Social pedagogy where as in U.K. its called as child and young care the same is called in Canada. Scene long time the people are served from a health care organisation, and it has been a long time where physically challenged people or mentally retarded people rely upon sources such as health and social care organisations. After a proper examination on the need of the dependent a subsequence care is provided. Unfortunately these situations are also faced by people who are impotent or are not reproductive, even after surviving for the whole life they dont have any one in their lives to take care for them. The dependents are generally divided under three major groups which are mis sioned as follows. Children or Juveniles People who are older People who are Physically challenged or Mentally retarded Health and social care workers have got lots of liabilities on them for the client as soon as they undertake a patient; it means they have taken the responsibilities of the client and their protection. Such a organisations are growing all over the world and are supported at a great deal by the government. An employee before being appointed in such organisation undergoes from a wide range of qualification and degrees. Definition of Needs: Needs refers as positive,  motivating  hunger that compels  action  for its  satisfaction. Needs  range  from basic survival needs (common  to all human beings) satisfied by  necessities, to cultural, intellectual, and social needs (varying from place to place and age  group  to age group) satisfied by  necessaries. Needs are finite but, in contrast,  wants  (which spring from desires or wishes) are boundless. http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/need.html First of all, We have to understand what are the needs. As per holistic approach, the needs are such as cultural, social, emotional, intellectual, spiritual and physical. As per services and resources, the needs are such as mobility, home care, social care, nursing and medical. As per famous psychologist Abram Maslows hierarchy of needs, are self-actualisation, esteem needs, belongings and love needs, safety needs, and psychological needs. Abram Maslows hierarchy of needs chart. Needs and Wants Care assistants and social care workers has to understand what is their needs and wants. Care assistants and social care workers have to distinguish the difference between needs and wants. Needs and Wants of care assistants and social care workers should need to be asses to understanding for the assessor within the organization. Challenges for Health and Social Care A Health and social care organisation is a challenging and a honouring as a profession which aims to provide service to the needy ones. It also provides protection and shelter to the dependents. The health and social care organisation needs to understand the need and accordingly apply the required skill on the client. They have the power of understanding of the approach which best fits with the patients. The Health and social care department keeps a record of the dependent with clear information about the dependent and his daily routine so as to understand and improve the requirement. Such organisations practice Anti discriminatory and treat the client with their best regardless of which race, country, age, and sex does he belongs to. They provide social services and assistance to ameliorate the social as well as the psychological behaviour of the person who is not able to help himself. As discussed above the people who require special need are basically divided into three groups Needs of Children Hiring a Health and Social carer for children is common now days. Child with single parent is major clients for such organisation. With change in time the requirement of humans has been changed a lot which draws the parents to go out for work and no one is there to look after their juveniles so as to protect them from getting into delinquencies parents require someone who looks after their kids when they are out as to make the child literate about the social life. Many parents decide to do so even to improve the psychological functioning of the children as well as to look after their studies. It is often found that a child with less assistance has more possibilities to fall in bad deeds. Here the carer plays a vital role for the parents and guides the child toward good things and teaches him that social values of the society. Hiring a social carer solves such problems and tends the child towards good things. These organisations helps those parents with the child having learning diffi culties, such children are taught by the social workers and learns the moral values of the life. Children who have behavioural difficulties such as talking to elders in an ill-mannered way the workers also teach them how to behave. Sometimes children fall in bad companies and acquire bad addictions such as having drugs alcohols the health and social care department also helps the child to rehabilitate by giving them a lively atmosphere. Children with high level of truancy are rare but in need of a person who looks after their studies, social workers work and analyse which is the better way for the individual to grab the interest in studies. Roles of Care Assistants and Social Care Workers for children Every care assistants and social care workers who provides the services to children needs to have their assistant. This assistant helps with care assistant and social care workers for the duties regarding teaching and caring to children. Childrens education requirements are vary according to their parents and schools. As care assistants and social care workers roles, they have to have basic qualification like diploma, with previous related experience. There is also need of college degree sometimes. Instruction The care assistant and social care workers have to instruct the children in terms of their learning activity. The care assistant and social care workers have to take care of the children by give proper instruction to them in terms of their education, behaviour, and safety. The care assistant and social care workers also have to check the grade papers after receiving childrens assignments. The care assistant and social care workers have also give suggestion of activities and lesson suitable to children to their parents. Supervision The care assistant and social care workers have to supervise the children while their break. The care assistant and social care workers have to supervise children when children are playing. The care assistant and social care workers also have to take care that children do not hurt themselves of others. The care assistant and social care workers also have to make sure that they do not go out of the premises. When there is need of or any event of problem arise, the care assistant and social care workers have to handles it as per situation very calmly. The care assistant and social care workers have to informs their superior in event of problem to get better solution of that. Cleaning The care assistant and social care workers have to make sure that the workspace need to be clean at the times. The care assistant and social care workers have to clean the premises accordingly. The care assistant and social care workers have to make sure that the playing area of children need to be safe so at the time of playing they are interact with one another without getting hurt. Nurturing When parents are busy with some other works or the teachers in the schools are busy with some other works, the care assistant and social care workers have to be with children when children get hurt. When they become sad, the care assistant and social care workers have to be with children to get out of it. The care assistant and social care workers also have to keep children clean and neat. The bathing and diaper- changing have also be do with clean by the care assistant and social care workers. The care assistant and social care workers have also make sure children get food regularly and provides the nutritious meals and snacks for the children throughout the day. Discussions The care assistant and social care workers have to prepare and confer the progress of children with their parents. The care assistant and social care workers have responsible to give progress report to the parents of children. The care assistant and social care workers should be helpful and also aware of the needs and issues related to the children. The care assistant and social care workers have to provide excellent feedback of the children. Old Age people In certain stage of life people do need a care taker after an age, even after having friends relatives and family they sometimes fail to access the needs, in this stage the person in special need requires a care taker who look after the patient and take good care of them. They even protect the client and take proper care of them. Unfortunately some people who are impotent and could not grow their families, are very hapless people such organisations do provide service to them. After reaching to a certain age few people undergo some disease such as Paralysis etc. These organisations provide service to such hapless people. The organisation takes care of aged people by doing household job for them such as cleaning in house, washing their cloths, Vacuuming in the corridor etc. They also take personal care such as helping them in taking shower, bathing, dress them up and toileting etc. Such a job needs a lot of patience and dedication above all it need the willingness and affection for the needy one which are often found in the workers of such organisation. The organisation has also opened a place where cares for such people are available. The place is also known as House of Commons where people of almost same age group stay together and spent there last inning of life. This care is taken by the Health and social care organisation. Roles of Care Assistants and Social Care Workers for old age people The workers in such organisation have very responsible work on their shoulders here they not only need to take care of the old people but also understand them. They should be a good listener so as to listen and understand that feeling of the old people who have lost their understanding and A Health and social care organisation is a challenging and a honouring as a profession which aims to provide service to the needy ones. It also provides protection and shelter to the dependents. The health and social care organisation needs to understand the need and accordingly apply the required skill on old age people. They have the power of understanding of the approach which best fits with the old age people. The Health and social care department keeps a record of the dependent with clear information about the dependent and his daily routine so as to understand and improve the requirement. Such organisations practice Anti discriminatory and treat the old age people with their best regardless o f which race, country, age, and sex does he belongs to. They provide social services and assistance to ameliorate the social as well as the psychological behaviour of the person who is not able to help themself. Physically challenge people People who are mentally retarded or physically challenged are very hard to take care of. Since family member fails to take good care of such people such clients are better assisted by such experienced social workers. Unluckily few people are born with such disabilities and many a times in spite of being a mother and father, Parents are not able to understand the requirement of the person who is experiencing such disabilities. Roles of Care Assistants and Social Care Workers for physically challenge people Concerning about health The care assistant and social care workers need have to concerned about the health of handicapped people or disabled people. The care assistant and social care workers have to be monitored medication activity of handicapped or disabled people. The care assistant and social care workers have to perform their task as per the suggestion of general practitioner of handicapped or disabled people. The care assistant and social care workers have to perform their duties under the direction of the registered nurses. Managing under definite standards The care assistant and social care workers have to manage the handicapped or disabled people as per assistance under personal hygiene and ambulation. Preparing, managing and reporting The care assistant and social care workers have to prepare record of handicapped or disabled peoples progress and serviced performed by them. The care assistant and social care workers also have to maintain record of the handicapped or disabled peoples progress and serviced performed by them. The care assistant and social care workers also have to reporting to the superior and guardian when there is a changes in condition of handicapped and disabled people. Performing various duties The care assistant and social care workers have to be perform the various duties such as cooking, washing the outfits, cleaning the dishes, and shopping for handicapped or disabled people. The care assistant and social care workers have to perform various housekeeping duties. Caring in various aspects The care assistant and social care workers have to take care of disabled or handicapped people and their families in events of the family disruption or restoration and helplessness. The care assistant and social care workers also have to provides companionship, personal care and help in adjusting new lifestyles to handicapped or disabled people and their families. Instruction and advisory The care assistant and social care workers have to instruct handicapped or disabled people on issues such as nutrition, personal hygiene, and house hold cleanliness. The care assistant and social care workers also have to advise handicapped or disabled people on issues such as nutrition, personal hygiene, and house hold cleanliness. Participating and consulting The care assistant and social care workers have to participate in case reviewing and consulting with responsible people to evaluate the handicapped or disabled people needs and planning for their future services. Transporting The care assistant and social care workers have to facilitate the handicapped or disabled people transportation from their location to other location such as physicians place, or any outing or using vehicles. Conclusion: The needs of people vary from one to another, as similar to this the needs of three groups also vary such to children, physically challenge people and old age people. Similar to needs of these three different groups the roles of care assistants and social care workers is also different. It need to be evaluate for development of clients.

Influence of Terror on Pakistan Stock Market Returns

Influence of Terror on Pakistan Stock Market Returns Abstract This paper examines the influence of political instability and terror on Pakistan stock market returns between 1997 and 2010. The study constructs three variables that quantify political instability and terror and examine the effect on country stock return. This study seeks to apply the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the impact of these variables on stock market returns and volatility using daily time series data for KSE. Results for KSE showed strong support for the hypothesis that bad news exerts more adverse effect on stock market volatility than good news of the same magnitude. Furthermore, terror and regime have significant negative impact while war has positive but insignificant effect on stock market volatility. JEL Classification: O40, C32. Keywords: Terror, Regime, political instability, growth, ARCH/GARCH. Introduction Many people agree that stock prices sometimes behave in bizarre ways. Markets are pretty tough and quite difficult. In the world of todays no one can negate the importance of stock markets. Stock market acts as a barometer for any countrys economy. In todays information-oriented world, news travels very fast and contagion can spread quickly and capital markets become more flexible and are absorb shocks brought on different news such as terrorism, political instability etc. Stock market of Pakistan is going through quite rough patch from many years. The change of political government and later on the terrorists attacks have badly affected the stock market and make the Pakistan Stock Market unreliable place for investment. As by seeing the overall scenario of Pakistans stock market during that time period it was not difficult for prices to follow certain patterns that support the rejection of Random Walk Hypothesis. This paper examines the impact of change in government, war and terror on economic growth in the Pakistan. Pakistan is one of those episodic-democratic countries who are facing continuous upheavals and socio-political disruptions since their inception. Military interventions could be witnessed in the political history of Pakistan. More over intervallic wars with India, strikes, antigovernment demonstrations and most importantly the ongoing war on terror have popped Pakistan to prominence on the socio-political platform. Such sociopolitical flux, terrorist attacks and other disruptions can have serious implications for stock price movement because stock prices reflect investors expectations about the future and these stock price movements on aggregate can generate a surged wave of activity. There has been an extensive work on study of stock market returns and volatility with respect to the fundamental variables and the macroeconomic variables but a diminutive work has been done so far to study the impact of socio-political factors on the stock market volatility in Pakistan. The existing literature on impact of socio-political factors on stock returns volatility is quite inadequate especially if we talk in context of Pakistani market. Masood Sergi (2008) analyzed Pakistans political risks and events that have affected the Pakistani stock market since its independence but their study chiefly covers the political events. Terrorism and strikes which have recently become the matters of intense interest and the source of unrest in the economy are the missing part there. The Karachi stock market is rapidly converting into a volatile market. If we see figure below it showed that there are high volatility during 1997 to 2010. This cannot be viewed as a positive sign for this emerging markets like Stock market of Pakistan. Though heavy fluctuations in stock prices are not an unusual phenomena and it has been observed at almost all big and small exchanges of the world. But focusing on the reasons for such fluctuations is instructive and likely to have important policy implications. The efficient market hypothesis argued that changes in stock prices are mainly dependent on the arrival of information regarding the expected returns from the stock and risk associated with that stock. (See Figure 1.1) So the purpose of our study is to examine empirically the impact of socio-political instability on Pakistani stock market. This study examines the three factors and their impact on the Pakistani stock market; the political instability due to military interventions, 1999 Kargil war, and terrorism. Literature Review A number of theoretical and empirical articles argue that these factors hinder economic growth of a country. Cutler, Poterba and Summers (1989) claimed that the sock prices move in response to the information other than about the fundamental values. They estimate the fraction of stock returns that can be accredited to various kinds of economic and non-economic events including assassinations of important political or national figures, war, invasions, raids and major policy change but their findings suggests a very small effect of non-economic news on the share price. Most of the studies have found a significant impact of political news or events on the stock market behavior. Chan Wei (1996) studied the impact of political news on the stock market volatility in Hong Kong and using GARCH-M model they found the strong evidence of the impact of political news on stock market volatility inferring that unfavorable political news is correlated to negative returns for the Hang Seng Index and vice versa. Mei Guo (1999) examined the impact of political insecurity on the financial crises in emerging markets and they observe that market volatility increased during political election and transition periods and political uncertainty could be a major contributory factor to financial crisis. Similarly Kim Mei (2001) infered through empirical analysis using GARCH(1,1) filter that the political risk affect the stock market volatility but this impact of political events or news is asymmetric, with bad news having a greater influence on volatility relative to good news. However Voth (2001) have argued that the impact of political factors in studies on German market has been over stated. He argued that the majority of events escalating political uncertainty had a minute or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility of their returns. Instead, it was inflation that is mainly responsible for most of the variability in stock returns. He suggests that there is no direct linkage between the political factors and the stock market, however through channel it impacts. But Voth (2002) in a panel study of a set of 10 countries using panel regression confess that during great depression political risks changed dramatically over the period, and are adequate to account for a large part of the boost in stock price volatility. Beaulieu, Cosset Essaddam (2002) examined the impact of political risk in Canada on the volatility of stock returns, covering important political events in the country. Their study suggested that political news performs a significant role in the volatility of stock returns. Moreover the volatility of stock returns also depends on the degree of how much a firm is exposed to political risk i.e. the structure of its assets and the level to which there is foreign involvement. Kutan Perez (2002)Â  also found a significant impact of social and political factors on stock return volatility in their study conducted on Colombian stock market. Bautista (2003) applied Regime-switching-ARCH regression on Philippine stock returns to estimate its conditional variance and the estimated volatility was then related to major political and economic events. Their study revealed that the Philippine stock market is sensitive to radical changes in the political situation. Moreover the series of military takeover attempts during late 1980s in Philippines lead to hefty fluctuations in stock market index. Masood Sergi (2008) analyzed political risks and events that have affected the Pakistans stock markets since its foundation. They have found that Pakistans political risk carries a significant risk premium of between 7.5% and 12%. They made forecasts using Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and found that there is relatively high probability of occurrence of events with an average arrival rate of approximately 1.5 events per year. Many others also wrote that political instability warped the future path of investment decisions (Calvo and Drazen (1997), lessened public investment leading to a shift of government budgets from capital spending to government consumption (Darby, Li and Muscatelli (1998), and makes governments less inclined to make improvements to the legal system (Svensson (1993) Wars and unrest at the borders creates instability and panic among the investors that could affect the stock market movement at large. The affect of war has been analyzed in many studies including Cutler, Poterba and Summers (1989), Aggarwal, Incaln Leal (1999) and in Pakistan Masood Sergi (2008). Aggarwal, Incaln Leal (1999) examined the sort of events that cause large swings in volatility of emerging stock markets. For this purpose they examine various social, political and economic events both at global and domestic level to find out their explanatory power in context of the returns volatility in the emerging markets including the impact of gulf war. Though at small scale but the impact of gulf war was felt in those emerging markets. Similarly Masood Sergi (2008) found that among other factors that they studied, wars with India, 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999 kargil war negatively influenced the Pakistani stock market. Evia et al. (2008) examined the affect of socio-political conflict in Bolivia on economic performance. Factors studied widespread during the conflicts as strikes, demonstrations, road blockades, and conventional rent-seeking. Their results showed that economic growth due to external factors is positively related to conflict while growth due to productive investment is negatively related to conflict. Terrorism is another as put that has been studied in relation to economic activity. Many studied in this distance; produced conflicting results as Becker and Murphy (2001) argue that economic performance are not much affected, because terrorist attacks usually devastate only a small portion of the overall stock of capital in a country. By contrast, Abadie and Gardeazabal (2005) repeated that terrorism shape overall economic risk in a country and lead to the economic shakiness in the country. They also conclude their study that higher level of terrorism risks results into the lower levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). Almost all studies on terrorism and its influence on stock prices limited to only on a single or few events, such as the 11 September 2001 attacks, as considered by Hon et al. (2004) Chen and Siems (2003) study. Chen Siems (2003), used event study methodology to capture the aftermath of terrorism on global capital markets. They studied on the reaction of U.S. capital markets in response to terrorist attacks. Their results showed that capital markets of US are more resilient flexible than in the past and recover quicker from terrorist attacks than other global capital markets. Their study suggests this increased market resilience to be partially explained by a stable financial sector in US that provides adequate liquidity to support market stability and reduce the spread panic. Methodology and Data Description Stock index data is taken from Karachi Stock Exchange, Yahoo Finance. This is a well known and reliable source of business information in Pakistan. The daily closing value of KSE-100 index is used for calculating the daily returns. The continuously compounded annual rate of return is used to measure the returns for the specific period as; Rt = ln (Pt / Pt-1) The closing prices of KSE-100 index for Karachi Stock Exchange are taken for the period July 2, 1997 to Oct 13, 2010. Our proxies are TERROR, a dummy variable of terrorist incidents during this period; REGIME, a dummy variable for government changes from fully democratic government to Marshal Law or democratic under such condition; a dummy variable for the period of the Kargal War in 1999. We applied regression model and Arch/Garch technique to capture the results. ARCH/GARCH Study Models This section presents the methodology of the paper. Daily data for Karachi stock markets were obtained from Yahoo finance and data for terror, kargal war and regime were obtained from South East Asia Terrorism Portal, and Different News Paper of Pakistan. Study apply ARCH/GARCH tools to see the long term relationship of these variable taking stock return as dependent variable and terror, regime and kargal war as independent variables. As aggregate uncertainty may be a function of political instability, we proceed to model uncertainty directly. It is natural to look at the conditional variance of output. Thus, we examine GARCH processes, in a more general framework than in the previous section. The model estimated here is a GARCH (1,1) process. Engle (1982) argue that in high frequency data large and small disturbance errors appear in group therefore error term variances can be shown as a function of their lagged values. He calls it Autoregressive conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH). As an investor or policy maker, we might be interested in investigating the returns and variance financial assets over observable period of time (conditional) rather than long run estimate of variance (unconditional). Engle (1982) shows that it is possible to describe the conditional mean and conditional variance of a financial asset using information set of previous period; Where is the return of financial asset in time t conditional on the information set at time t-1. E represents the expected value in statistics. Consider the simple model Where Where the rate of is return and are the regression parameters. A typical ARCH model can be written as follows: Conditional Mean Equation; Error Decomposition OR where ‘v is the part of variance which is homoskedastic and is the conditional variance which is Heteroskedasticity. This conditional variance can be shown as ARCH Conditional variance Equation, i.e. where and are non negative. Engle (1982) has also derived a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) based principle to test the hypothesis of. Another useful variant of ARCH methodology, proposed by Bollerslev (1986) is the generalized ARCH or GARCH model. Bollerslev (1986) argues that conditional variance in financial series is not only the function of its lagged error term but also the function of its lagged conditional variances. Therefore, GARCH (1, 1) process would be So GARCH model helps to explain the conditional variance with the help of past squared error term and conditional variance lag value. Which also means that conditional variance at time‘t would be function of long run variances and also variances conditional on past information set (short run) or observed shocks i.e. . Testing for ARCH/GARCH effects: Before estimating Arch/Garch techniques, it is first important to check for possible presence of Arch effect in order to know which model is requires the ARCH estimation instead of OLS (Ordinary Least Squire). The presence of ARCH effects in a regression model does not invalidate OLS estimation. However it implies that there is more efficient nonlinear estimator than OLS. (See Table 1.1) Obs*R-Squared is 147.26 and has a probability limit of 0.000. This clearly suggested that ARCH effect is present and presence of Heteroskedasticity suggested that ARCH/GARCH is appropriate model for this type of time series data. So we can apply ARCH/GARCH model on this data instead of ordinary least squire regression. Result of GARCH effects: The results of GARCH are presented in Table 1.3. The first column presents the regression results when we include as independent variables dummy values of the regime, terror, and war. In most of the cases, the variables enter with the anticipated signs, but not all of them are consistently significant at the 0.05 level. We can see an evidence of significant negative impact of terror, regime that show due to bomb blast in Pakistan and change in government negatively impact the country stock return in long run while insignificant positive impact of war on the country stock return. The results can further explained that stock return volatility every day is explained by approximately 71% of the previous months return volatility for Karachi stock exchange. This is significant for KSE returns. The coefficient of return innovation are statistically significant for market implying that new information arrival into the markets has significant impact on predicting next days stock market volatility. Because, the constant term in the variance equation for KSE is significant. The results of GARCH (1,1) are presented in Table 1.3 (Table 1.2) The model can be written as; Mean Equation: = 0.001188+ 0.064048* R_KSE(-1) Variance Equation: GARCH = 4.01E-05 + 0.20721*ARCH+ 0.713458 GARCH(-1) 1.21E-05*Terror + 1.93E-05*War -1.48E-05*Regime The persistence parameter for KSE Durbin-Watson stat = 1.943, which is > 1. This show a very explosive volatility in KSE returns. It also demonstrates the capability of past volatility to explain current volatility (Engle and Bollerslev, 1986) and because it is very high, the rate at which it diminishes is rather very slowly. For ACRH/GARCH, conditional standard deviation and conditional varience graph were as shown in figure 1.2 and 1.3; The GARCH coefficient is both statistically significant and conforms to expectation. This implies that past variances exert significantly positive effect on stock return volatility in KSE. On the basis of these results, it is evident that there is significant time varying volatility in Pakistan stock market returns during the sample periods. Conclusions and Recommendations In this paper, we have estimated a nonlinear GARCH model for daily stock returns volatility and terror, Kargal war and regime in Pakistan. Data for the estimation of GARCH (1,1) models was obtained from Yahoo finance and South Asia Terror Portal and news paper of Pakistan. The asymmetric effect of terror, war and regime on stock returns and volatility was investigated. Preliminary investigation into the nature of the data reveals that study had to employ ARCH/GARCH techniques for data analysis. Firstly, results show evidence of time varying volatility in stock market returns across the market and from the asymmetric model, results indicate that bad news has larger impact on stock volatility than good news in the KSE. The result for KSE showed that terror and regime has negativity impact on returns of KSE while war has positively effect, it may be due to short term period of the war. All three variable are significantly have their impact on the returns.

Madness and Insanity in Shakespeares Hamlet Essay example -- The Melan

The Melancholy Hamlet  Ã‚        Ã‚  Ã‚   William Shakespeare’s tragic play Hamlet is an exercise in the study of melancholy. Let’s explore the in’s and out’s of this aspect of the drama in this essay.    Gunnar Boklund gives a reason for the highlighting of the melancholy aspect of the protagonist in Shakespeare’s Hamlet in his essay â€Å"Judgment in Hamlet†:    In the tragedy of Hamlet Shakespeare does not concern himself with the question whether blood-revenge is justified or not; it is raised only once and very late by the protagonist (v,ii,63-70)and never seriously considered. The dramatic and psychological situation rather than the moral issue is what seems to have attracted Shakespeare, and he chose to develop it, in spite of the hard-to-digest and at times a little absurd elements it might involve. . .(118-19).    Imagery is a factor in the melancholy. The imagery in Othello â€Å"enhances the strain of melancholy in Hamlet by dwelling on sickness and decay [. . .]† (Levin 14). The initial imagery is very bleak and depressing: â€Å"The story opens in the cold and dark of a winter night in Denmark, while the guard is being changed on the battlements of the royal castle of Elsinore. For two nights in succession, just as the bell strikes the hour of one, a ghost has appeared on the battlements, a figure dressed in complete armor and with a face like that of the dead king of Denmark, Hamlet’s father† (Chute 35).    Horatio and Marcellus exit the ghost-ridden ramparts of Elsinore intending to enlist the aid of Hamlet. The prince is dejected by the â€Å"o’erhasty marriage† of his mother to his uncle less than two months after the funeral of Hamlet’s father. There is a social gathering of the court, where Hamlet is present,... ...ess, 1999. Rpt. from Introduction to Hamlet, Prince of Denmark. Ed. Philip Edwards. N. P.: Cambridge University P., 1985.    Levin, Harry. General Introduction. The Riverside Shakespeare. Ed. G. Blakemore Evans. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1974.    Mack, Maynard. â€Å"The World of Hamlet.† Yale Review. vol. 41 (1952) p. 502-23. Rpt. in Shakespeare: Modern Essays in Criticism. Rev. ed. Ed. Leonard F. Dean. New York: Oxford University P., 1967.    Rosenberg, Marvin. â€Å"Laertes: An Impulsive but Earnest Young Aristocrat.† Readings on Hamlet. Ed. Don Nardo. San Diego: Greenhaven Press, 1999. Rpt. from The Masks of Hamlet. Newark, NJ: Univ. of Delaware P., 1992.    Shakespeare, William. The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denmark. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 1995. http://www.chemicool.com/Shakespeare/hamlet/full.html No line nos.      

I Think Im Pretty Sure I Remember What You Did Last Summer :: English Literature Essays

I Think I'm Pretty Sure I Remember What You Did Last Summer After we ran over that old lady in Diego’s car, well things haven’t been the same. I still have nightmares of her chasing me with that handbag. I told them to go to the police but Diego didn’t want to be put up for manslaughter. I can’t get the image out of my mind. I knew we shouldn’t have dumped her body in the Port River. If Luke weren’t so pissed that night he wouldn’t have distracted Diego. Ben’s not the same anymore, he keeps on having these mental fits. I feel sorry for his parents, I mean the old lady even killed Michael for gods sake! Alastair’s been acting really weird too. Every time he sees an old lady he goes absolutely crazy. Anyway a good thing happened the other day, it was a far cry from all those murders that old bitch committed, she should be dead I mean I shot her in the head five times before pushing her in front of that semi-trailer. Anyway, the good thing is a radio station rang up and said that I’d won a trip to Kangaroo Island and that I could take five mates along. So let me see†¦I took Alastair, Ben, Diego, Luke and Jason. We all went in Diego’s car. Alastair sat up front, Ben, Luke and I were in the back and we tied Jason to the roof racks with the entire luggage and Adam wanted to come so he ran behind us. We deliberately took the long way. When we arrived it was fantastic, I reckon it was a five star shack. Adam died of a heart attack when we got there so we burnt his body and pissed on his ashes, you know†¦to make sure he didn’t come back to life and kill us all. Anyway we met the bloke who owned the shack, his name was Bill Oldladison and he was a pretty nice guy. He let us borrow his fishing gear and all. That night Luke decided to raise the alcohol level in his blood so he reached into his bag of booze and sucked on a bottle of Jim Beam. Alastair got hungry and asked Diego to go to the local pizza bar and get two party size pizza’s but Diego didn’t want to go because he was waiting for some soccer show about Boca Juniors to start on SBS so he gave the keys to Luke.

The Criminal Justice System as a Gendering Structure Essay -- Violence

The Criminal Justice System as a Gendering Structure Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. Martin Luther King Jr. Letter from Birmingham Jail, April 16, 1963 The narrow view of the world that we often experience prevents us from even engaging for or against ideals that we would take on, given the chance. We often become deaf to opportunity, however. While it may seem we are complicit in many of the injustices that our society perpetuates, often times we are not even aware of the issue. An uninformed decision will be as bad as no decision. Many problems exude from the state of our social values. The role that women play in society is slowly changing from that of a ‘nurturer’ to any role a woman strives for. Progress has come through much pain and the hope is one day there will be real equality in the results of our societies spoken and unspoken laws. The media can heavily influences public opinion. This holds true for both things that are over-informed and for topics that receive little attention. News sources have been proven to be capable of changing public opinion, or, less often mentioned, keeping public opinion the same. Those who strive for equality today are not only faced with the problems of informing people, they also must be able to gather support for their cause in the media. It seems the media grabs onto topics of a mini-van’s faulty seat belts faster than it does the treatment of women in the criminal justice system. The problem is discussed in the academic circle yet without more media support it seems the critique of the injustice goes unnoticed. This does not mean that the general public finds the current state of affairs acceptable (although by many accounts we do), but because th... ...1993. Pearson, Patricia. _When She Was Bad_. Jane von Mehran. England: Penguin Group, 1997. Rivera, Jenny. Domestic Violence against Latinas by Latino Males._Critical Race Feminism_. Adrien Katherine Wing. New York and London: New York University Press, 1997. 259-266. Streib, Victor. "Death Penalty for Female Offenders." March 1, 2002. Ohio Northern University. April 15, 2002. <http://www.law.onu.edu/faculty/streib/femdeath.htm>. U.S. Census Bureau. "2000 Census of Population and Housing." May 2000. www.census.gov. April 15, 2002. <http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/dp1/2kh00.pdf>. Walker, Lenore. â€Å"Battered Wives, Battered Justice.† Cited by Gerald Caplan. National Review. February 25, 1991. Young, Cathy. "Sexism and the death chamber." May 4, 2000. Salon.com. April 15, 2002. <http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2000/05/04/death/print.html>.

Relation to God-Talk Essay

In his writings, St. Thomas Aquinas made possible the merging together of classical philosophy and Christian theology. Within this universe of discourse, one may agree that it is important for human beings to have the correct idea about God’s will. In as far as the Catholic faith is concerned, the need to arrive at a fuller understanding of God’s will serves as both the sufficient and necessary condition for the institution of the Creed. A person’s idea about will of God would ultimately determine the kind of life that a person would lead; the direction that a person would take. However, not all human beings are willing and able to seek the will of God in the Scriptures. Aquinas’ knowledge by analogy makes possible the tasks of understanding God and teaching the will of God. â€Å"Aquinas uses these analogies or examples to illustrate how the scientific form of sacred teaching might work† (Brown, 1999, p. 4). By analogy, Aquinas understands it to be an ontological term. The term refers to the nature or being of a thing. Thus, in this universe of discourse, analogy refers to the nature or being of the God. The concept of analogy implies is that what is in God is also in us (human beings). Such analogical relationship between God and us accurately captured by the concept of resemblance. By resemblance, Aquinas points out that human beings are (in some degree) what God uniquely is. Such a relationship is analogical because we are linked together by common attributes. In short, there is something within us that we share with God. Wisdom, for example is both in God and human beings although differing in degree and the manner in which such knowledge is attained. In the final analysis, understanding God and the will of God becomes a possibility because of knowledge by analogy. God-Talk becomes possible because there is something within us that we share with God. By painstakingly studying the Scriptures and employing deductions, it is also possible to arrive at a systematic body of knowledge like the Creed which would constitute the doctrine of the Church; helpful not only to the theologian but for the average believer. Reference Brown, S. F. (Ed. ). (1999). On Faith and Reason. Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing.

A Teacher’s Guide to the Holocaust Essay

What comes into your mind when you hear the word holocaust? What would be the most powerful deterrent against another holocaust? Will keeping the memory of a holocaust prevent it from happening again? Holocaust refers to the great destruction of humans made by other humans that result in extensive loss of life. In holocaust, there is a thorough destruction of life, especially by fire. In the modern world 1900 to present, it refers to the killing of some six million European Jews by the Nazis, thus the survivors in the holocaust of 1900 were able to write their experiences about the event. The literature was made possible because of the Holocaust of World War II. The literature includes true stories of survival, loss, and death. An example of a holocaust literature was â€Å"The Night†, written by Elie Wiesel. The novel â€Å"The Night† is about Elie Wiesel’s teenage experiences at different Nazi camps. He said that he would never forget those flames which consumed his faith forever. Other literatures influenced by Holocaust of World War II include Saul Bellow’s â€Å"Mr. Sammler’s Planet,† Anne Frank’s â€Å"The Diary of a Young Girl. † In conclusion, holocaust is the extensive loss of life through fire. Upon reading holocaust literatures, one will be able to see clearly that the most powerful deterrent against another holocaust are the survivor’s memories and testimonies about their experiences. Works Cited â€Å"Survivor Testimony and Literature. † 2005. A Teacher’s Guide to the Holocaust. 4 August 2008 < http://fcit. usf. edu/HOLOCAUST/ARTS/litSurvi. htm>.